Was singer Stephen Stills giving investment advice when he wrote the song For What Its Worth? Or is this just another investment firm experiencing a 60s flashback? Take it from me; a little paranoia can be a good thing. It makes you very aware. And you need to be aware...not only of trends in the marketplace, but also longer term trends that are evolving all around us. Let me explain. Imagine you were turning age 65, not today...but way back in 1950. Your average life expectancy beyond 65 back then was 13.9 years. This was the original idea behind social security...they just didnt expect so many folks to be living past 75 or 80. Today were approaching the point where people will have an average life expectancy of more than 20 years after retirement. Going forward, many will be retired for 25 years, or even longer! And if youre blessed with some luck and you worked hard at staying in good shape, it may be even longer than that. Thats 25 years or more without a paycheck! With most folks simply working for the weekend, thats enough to make most baby boomers paranoid. But heres where it gets worse: Many have nothing substantial saved for retirement! I had a 60 year old prospective client tell me recently (with a straight face) that he was living in his retirement plan. Meaning, he had nothing set aside for retirement. He simply planned on selling his expensive home when he retired and expected to live on whatever he could get for it. Ok. I understand. But this is where it gets even more interesting. In our conversation, he went on to tell me, Come on, my wife and I work hard. We only take two vacations every year...when some of our friends seem like theyre away more than theyre home! And since we work hard, we also figured we deserve to drive around in new cars every two or three years. And dont talk to me about our club membership, thats our social time. After all, we deserve it. Not only did this guy not look ahead and think through to the end of the game, he also expects that when hes retired, hell be comfortable in a completely different lifestyle...living in a scaled down home, no vacations, no new cars, maybe no private club either. Wow. A total change. He may have a long adjustment phase. So, what will you do? Whats your game plan...sell your home and move to a sunnier climate? The demographics show that the baby boomer generation is the largest in the United States. Meaning generations to follow are smaller in size. Forget about the tax and social security questions, we can debate them for hours without an answer. Thats a train wreck; Im not planning on seeing much from social security. I want you to consider this: since generations to follow are smaller in size, whats the one thing weve got quite a bit of, that future generations wont need as much of? (And have trouble affording anyway?) The answer is there will be fewer home buyers in the future. Not next month, not next year. Down the road. And by the way, they cant afford your asking price. Who will you sell your house to when its time to cash it in...and at what price? If youve been a steady reader of my articles, you know that if too many sellers all show up at the same time, what happens to prices? They all drop. Too much supply. And thats a retirement plan? When I sit with clients I try and probe what their end of the game will look like. Where will you be when its time for you to hang up your spikes? What will you do? You need to start with a clear picture of where you want to finish. Then everything falls into place coming back to the present...and what needs to get done today. Otherwise, its time for paranoia. |
